* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP042009 07/12/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 83 85 88 90 91 89 86 81 75 67 62 V (KT) LAND 75 79 83 85 88 90 91 89 86 81 75 67 62 V (KT) LGE mod 75 79 81 83 85 89 92 93 93 91 87 79 70 SHEAR (KT) 3 6 8 7 5 8 5 5 2 6 9 20 21 SHEAR DIR 348 6 17 35 36 17 37 36 356 317 297 302 292 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.0 27.9 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 150 149 149 149 145 144 146 143 139 136 134 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 58 60 59 60 63 59 59 55 55 51 52 46 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -18 -10 -7 0 5 13 5 0 12 14 8 8 200 MB DIV 50 25 2 12 27 2 -1 -32 -18 1 7 -32 -62 LAND (KM) 1724 1791 1864 1942 2010 2153 2299 2456 2425 2182 1926 1663 1394 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 119.6 120.7 121.8 123.0 124.2 126.6 128.8 131.1 133.5 135.8 138.2 140.7 143.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 12 11 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 46 45 39 36 31 32 26 23 35 26 18 8 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -3. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 6. 5. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 13. 15. 16. 14. 11. 6. 0. -8. -13. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042009 CARLOS 07/12/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042009 CARLOS 07/12/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY