* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP042009 07/12/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 79 81 82 83 83 81 76 69 60 54 50 V (KT) LAND 75 77 79 81 82 83 83 81 76 69 60 54 50 V (KT) LGE mod 75 76 76 77 78 80 81 81 82 79 72 63 56 SHEAR (KT) 6 5 5 6 6 4 6 4 6 7 12 11 22 SHEAR DIR 348 5 21 343 344 358 4 44 274 253 256 237 264 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 149 149 149 148 144 145 145 138 136 133 130 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 62 60 61 62 63 57 60 60 55 53 53 47 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -10 -9 -4 -1 4 13 4 8 20 24 13 24 200 MB DIV 24 5 0 20 12 7 -19 -18 -9 1 -19 -38 -37 LAND (KM) 1776 1843 1915 1985 2055 2205 2340 2499 2332 2084 1873 1624 1362 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.7 10.8 11.1 11.4 11.8 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.5 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 120.4 121.5 122.5 123.8 125.0 127.4 129.4 131.8 134.3 136.6 138.6 140.9 143.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 11 11 12 12 10 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 46 42 37 33 30 30 24 26 32 23 16 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 0. -3. -6. -8. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 1. -6. -15. -21. -25. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042009 CARLOS 07/12/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042009 CARLOS 07/12/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY