* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP042009 07/12/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 63 63 64 66 65 64 63 59 53 50 47 V (KT) LAND 65 63 63 63 64 66 65 64 63 59 53 50 47 V (KT) LGE mod 65 62 61 61 61 63 64 65 65 64 61 56 51 SHEAR (KT) 6 6 5 6 6 5 8 5 8 10 11 11 14 SHEAR DIR 360 3 360 335 344 346 341 322 326 291 288 257 276 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.9 28.2 28.0 27.5 27.1 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 149 149 149 147 144 147 144 139 135 134 134 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 60 60 60 61 60 61 59 57 58 57 50 46 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -1 0 1 4 14 7 10 18 21 0 -4 0 200 MB DIV 11 -2 9 6 4 -23 -34 0 -13 1 -22 -41 -42 LAND (KM) 1846 1927 2004 2071 2143 2283 2454 2513 2301 2083 1848 1614 1396 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.6 12.1 12.5 13.1 13.3 13.3 LONG(DEG W) 121.3 122.5 123.7 124.9 126.0 128.2 130.6 132.8 134.7 136.7 138.8 141.1 143.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 9 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 46 40 33 32 30 26 23 31 30 23 15 7 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -6. -12. -15. -18. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042009 CARLOS 07/12/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042009 CARLOS 07/12/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY