* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP042009 07/13/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 47 48 49 52 54 55 55 51 47 44 43 V (KT) LAND 50 48 47 48 49 52 54 55 55 51 47 44 43 V (KT) LGE mod 50 46 44 44 45 47 50 52 54 54 53 50 45 SHEAR (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 9 7 11 9 10 14 27 25 SHEAR DIR 14 2 7 19 355 334 331 330 318 295 247 274 280 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.0 28.2 28.3 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 149 147 144 147 148 144 140 138 137 136 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 62 60 58 60 60 60 60 57 58 53 48 48 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 2 7 9 13 7 8 5 0 -5 -8 5 9 200 MB DIV 18 9 0 -4 -21 -27 0 -10 -17 -24 -37 -26 -37 LAND (KM) 2016 2086 2161 2232 2307 2466 2585 2358 2132 1887 1623 1393 1202 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.7 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.3 12.6 12.6 12.4 LONG(DEG W) 123.6 124.8 125.9 127.0 128.1 130.3 132.3 134.4 136.5 138.8 141.4 143.9 146.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 12 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 34 33 31 28 25 24 28 35 28 20 16 23 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 14. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -6. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. -1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 1. -3. -6. -7. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042009 CARLOS 07/13/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042009 CARLOS 07/13/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY