* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP042009 07/13/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 47 49 51 53 54 55 52 48 46 46 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 47 49 51 53 54 55 52 48 46 46 V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 44 44 45 48 50 52 54 56 56 54 50 SHEAR (KT) 5 6 6 7 11 9 12 10 7 8 17 20 21 SHEAR DIR 354 354 347 351 351 337 329 350 331 287 272 295 301 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 152 151 150 147 150 150 147 145 143 140 138 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 62 61 61 61 62 61 59 59 57 54 54 51 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 9 11 14 12 4 2 -4 -7 -8 0 9 12 200 MB DIV 19 5 -10 -21 -35 -4 7 2 -13 -10 -43 -37 -25 LAND (KM) 2123 2189 2259 2336 2416 2555 2495 2279 2054 1822 1572 1376 1217 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.5 10.9 11.3 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.2 12.0 LONG(DEG W) 124.7 125.8 126.8 128.0 129.1 131.2 133.3 135.3 137.4 139.7 142.2 144.4 146.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 12 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 36 33 28 27 25 24 35 33 28 23 22 26 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 7. 3. 1. 1. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042009 CARLOS 07/13/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042009 CARLOS 07/13/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY