* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962009 07/13/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 51 61 69 71 69 63 58 52 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 51 61 69 71 69 63 58 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 47 53 56 54 50 SHEAR (KT) 15 12 9 6 7 1 1 7 2 5 3 9 9 SHEAR DIR 312 322 330 298 270 203 305 20 359 24 275 303 281 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.3 27.3 25.9 25.1 24.2 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 151 151 151 152 153 148 138 124 115 106 99 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.1 -52.6 -52.7 -51.9 -52.4 -51.8 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 78 78 78 79 79 79 78 73 69 65 61 59 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 11 12 12 11 11 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 13 17 18 18 15 16 16 24 21 24 6 -4 -24 200 MB DIV 115 99 111 97 81 71 45 45 6 0 -7 -3 -14 LAND (KM) 974 987 1007 1019 1036 1094 1132 1151 1223 1297 1430 1526 1652 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.9 11.2 11.6 11.9 12.7 13.6 14.7 15.7 16.8 17.8 18.9 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 107.5 108.4 109.2 110.0 110.8 112.5 114.4 116.7 118.9 121.4 123.9 126.4 128.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 46 49 50 48 45 41 39 37 7 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 780 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 20. 26. 28. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 6. 6. 3. 1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 26. 36. 44. 46. 44. 38. 33. 27. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962009 INVEST 07/13/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 86.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 54% is 4.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962009 INVEST 07/13/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY