* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TEST AL882009 07/13/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 24 24 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 24 24 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 23 22 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 23 22 20 11 11 21 23 31 25 25 20 33 32 SHEAR DIR 221 230 235 237 217 231 237 247 258 259 263 282 287 SST (C) 25.9 25.8 25.8 26.2 26.4 27.0 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 115 117 117 120 122 128 133 137 140 138 140 145 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 123 121 124 125 131 137 140 144 139 140 147 143 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.3 -53.9 -54.0 -54.4 -54.1 -54.2 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 9 11 10 11 9 10 8 11 700-500 MB RH 46 47 46 46 44 45 33 37 41 48 51 55 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 70 69 43 33 27 14 31 38 40 65 83 83 200 MB DIV 60 45 39 17 30 18 -40 -35 -23 14 -17 -16 0 LAND (KM) 1854 1894 1701 1550 1409 1133 918 534 249 244 300 242 278 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.2 14.7 14.0 13.3 12.9 12.9 13.3 14.0 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 34.7 37.4 40.1 42.5 44.9 49.1 53.2 56.8 60.2 63.3 66.1 68.9 71.6 STM SPEED (KT) 16 26 25 23 22 21 19 17 16 14 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 5 23 38 49 71 46 31 52 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -5. -10. -14. -15. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -16. -18. -20. -20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL882009 TEST 07/13/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)