* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TEST EP892009 07/13/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 27 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 28 30 32 37 43 41 49 58 62 60 61 66 74 SHEAR DIR 278 271 265 267 270 263 253 251 250 261 267 262 262 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.6 26.0 25.7 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 135 136 136 133 129 123 120 117 118 119 118 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -54.1 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 29 31 33 35 34 31 33 34 34 33 33 33 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -28 -22 -28 -20 -13 0 0 -14 -17 -24 -37 -47 200 MB DIV -35 -19 -26 -17 -18 -5 35 11 0 -13 -10 -16 -5 LAND (KM) 1843 1727 1614 1515 1417 1241 1058 865 690 509 347 189 83 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.6 14.1 15.2 16.3 17.4 18.4 19.3 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 138.5 139.7 140.9 142.0 143.0 144.9 146.6 148.0 149.2 150.5 151.7 153.0 154.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 6 6 14 7 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -8. -14. -23. -33. -39. -43. -48. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -18. -19. -19. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -9. -13. -15. -16. -16. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -9. -19. -31. -43. -54. -62. -67. -72. -75. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP892009 TEST 07/13/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP892009 TEST 07/13/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY