* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP042009 07/14/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 60 60 59 57 56 55 52 49 44 42 V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 60 60 59 57 56 55 52 49 44 42 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 60 62 62 62 60 58 56 55 52 47 42 SHEAR (KT) 5 6 10 11 13 21 18 15 13 17 24 28 23 SHEAR DIR 331 328 327 339 326 321 340 341 327 297 289 289 299 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.7 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 149 148 150 151 150 149 146 143 144 146 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 62 62 63 63 63 62 64 61 56 51 52 53 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 21 25 22 17 12 7 -11 -17 -18 -14 -10 -8 -9 200 MB DIV -16 -37 -60 -55 -33 -3 6 -30 -25 -39 -20 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 2263 2342 2425 2502 2583 2554 2338 2110 1871 1595 1272 1026 868 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.3 10.7 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.7 11.7 11.5 LONG(DEG W) 126.5 127.7 128.8 129.9 131.0 133.0 135.0 137.2 139.6 142.5 146.1 149.6 153.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 13 16 18 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 29 28 26 26 24 34 36 34 28 26 28 34 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -3. -6. -11. -13. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042009 CARLOS 07/14/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -40.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042009 CARLOS 07/14/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY