* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962009 07/14/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 35 42 48 51 52 46 39 34 29 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 35 42 48 51 52 46 39 34 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 26 28 31 35 37 37 34 31 SHEAR (KT) 15 12 9 8 9 7 5 3 2 8 10 15 20 SHEAR DIR 295 292 280 260 211 195 120 126 106 276 283 270 259 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 27.8 26.7 25.4 24.6 23.7 23.2 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 151 151 151 143 132 118 110 101 95 94 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -51.7 -52.3 -51.6 -52.6 -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -53.1 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 78 76 78 76 75 75 70 68 64 60 53 50 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 12 11 10 8 7 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 18 18 14 16 22 29 33 24 16 13 2 -7 -20 200 MB DIV 101 78 68 73 89 41 51 17 3 -8 -32 -26 5 LAND (KM) 928 964 1008 1052 1076 1092 1139 1212 1298 1433 1555 1691 1874 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.5 15.4 16.3 17.4 18.4 19.5 20.6 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 110.1 111.0 111.9 112.7 113.5 115.4 117.4 119.6 122.0 124.6 127.3 129.7 132.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 9 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 51 43 38 35 33 41 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 802 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 19. 23. 25. 25. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 10. 17. 23. 26. 27. 21. 14. 9. 4. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962009 INVEST 07/14/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962009 INVEST 07/14/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY