* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP042009 07/14/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 54 54 52 51 49 46 43 38 36 34 V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 54 54 52 51 49 46 43 38 36 34 V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 54 54 53 51 49 48 47 46 43 38 33 SHEAR (KT) 6 7 10 12 14 18 11 13 10 19 31 28 24 SHEAR DIR 323 337 327 335 328 336 348 324 298 289 302 302 275 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 148 147 148 151 151 147 146 143 144 145 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 63 61 62 61 61 62 63 59 51 48 50 50 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 34 29 18 9 4 -17 -28 -21 -15 -7 -4 9 3 200 MB DIV -21 -48 -54 -31 -21 0 -17 -32 -35 -33 -22 -17 -8 LAND (KM) 2283 2345 2409 2475 2544 2584 2387 2143 1845 1538 1250 1027 864 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.8 9.8 10.0 10.1 10.3 10.7 11.1 11.5 11.6 11.4 11.4 11.6 LONG(DEG W) 126.9 127.8 128.7 129.7 130.7 132.7 134.5 136.8 139.7 143.0 146.7 150.0 152.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 10 10 9 10 13 15 17 17 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 29 28 26 25 24 30 37 35 25 24 30 39 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -17. -19. -21. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042009 CARLOS 07/14/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -35.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042009 CARLOS 07/14/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY