* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962009 07/14/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 29 31 38 43 46 45 38 31 24 19 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 29 31 38 43 46 45 38 31 24 19 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 27 29 31 31 29 26 22 SHEAR (KT) 10 8 5 6 2 4 4 5 1 9 12 17 25 SHEAR DIR 286 288 260 200 211 168 116 7 28 264 265 271 248 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.4 27.5 26.0 25.1 24.1 23.4 23.0 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 151 152 149 140 125 116 105 97 93 93 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.5 -53.2 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 78 77 78 75 77 75 74 68 67 64 56 50 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 11 9 7 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 19 19 24 31 38 43 43 24 29 6 9 -4 -17 200 MB DIV 90 70 82 82 69 56 47 21 19 -5 -21 -15 9 LAND (KM) 961 997 1040 1091 1089 1111 1182 1261 1387 1503 1644 1790 1900 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.8 15.7 16.7 17.8 19.0 20.2 21.1 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 110.6 111.5 112.3 113.2 114.1 116.2 118.3 120.8 123.4 126.2 128.9 131.1 133.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 13 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 46 42 37 34 35 37 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 19. 23. 24. 24. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 6. 13. 18. 21. 20. 13. 6. -1. -6. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962009 INVEST 07/14/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962009 INVEST 07/14/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY