* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP042009 07/14/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 79 79 77 73 69 64 59 57 53 47 43 V (KT) LAND 75 78 79 79 77 73 69 64 59 57 53 47 43 V (KT) LGE mod 75 80 82 82 80 74 69 65 62 59 55 50 44 SHEAR (KT) 6 10 11 12 14 13 11 12 13 14 23 24 22 SHEAR DIR 329 316 324 321 323 334 336 330 325 326 309 316 288 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 147 147 149 151 150 147 144 142 141 145 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 61 61 62 61 62 62 66 58 58 52 49 50 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 20 5 1 -9 -29 -20 -21 -8 -6 -2 2 -2 200 MB DIV -40 -42 -20 -18 -4 -3 -32 -17 -31 -29 -24 -27 -18 LAND (KM) 2296 2347 2401 2471 2544 2559 2363 2125 1856 1606 1393 1152 943 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.0 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.9 11.3 11.5 11.7 11.7 11.6 LONG(DEG W) 127.3 128.1 128.8 129.8 130.8 132.9 134.8 137.1 139.7 142.3 144.6 147.7 151.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 10 10 10 10 12 13 12 13 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 28 27 26 25 24 33 37 35 27 25 28 27 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 9. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -6. -11. -16. -18. -22. -28. -32. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042009 CARLOS 07/14/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042009 CARLOS 07/14/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY