* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962009 07/14/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 40 44 46 44 39 31 26 22 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 40 44 46 44 39 31 26 22 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 26 29 32 35 35 32 29 25 SHEAR (KT) 7 6 3 1 2 3 3 5 7 8 15 17 22 SHEAR DIR 275 258 203 256 168 15 351 3 314 298 293 262 255 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.4 27.6 26.4 25.6 24.5 23.8 23.5 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 152 153 153 149 141 129 121 109 102 99 95 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 -51.5 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -53.0 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 2 3 2 700-500 MB RH 78 77 76 77 75 73 70 68 66 61 58 55 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 13 11 10 8 7 5 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 31 33 36 42 38 46 38 43 25 3 -20 -24 -26 200 MB DIV 94 76 86 60 68 64 5 -1 -13 -18 -12 20 19 LAND (KM) 1117 1153 1192 1190 1194 1228 1296 1360 1485 1603 1738 1910 1999 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.6 12.8 13.1 13.4 14.2 15.1 16.1 17.1 18.3 19.4 20.4 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 112.4 113.1 113.8 114.6 115.3 117.2 119.2 121.5 124.0 126.8 129.4 132.0 134.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 8 8 9 10 12 13 14 14 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 45 45 44 46 50 46 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 19. 23. 25. 25. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -5. -9. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 15. 19. 21. 19. 14. 6. 1. -3. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962009 INVEST 07/14/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 3.0 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962009 INVEST 07/14/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY