* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP042009 07/14/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 85 84 83 79 74 67 62 58 55 49 44 V (KT) LAND 80 84 85 84 83 79 74 67 62 58 55 49 44 V (KT) LGE mod 80 86 88 86 83 76 71 68 65 61 57 52 46 SHEAR (KT) 7 11 11 12 11 8 9 6 10 14 19 22 24 SHEAR DIR 288 305 306 308 321 343 342 322 331 308 318 300 285 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 147 146 145 148 150 147 144 144 142 142 144 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 62 63 60 61 61 65 62 55 52 51 51 49 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 13 2 -12 -24 -25 -17 -10 0 -7 -2 0 12 200 MB DIV -35 -16 -15 -4 -17 -23 -39 -47 -34 -34 -12 -21 -16 LAND (KM) 2332 2377 2424 2472 2523 2555 2323 2078 1826 1560 1327 1085 858 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.6 12.0 12.1 11.7 11.7 12.0 LONG(DEG W) 127.9 128.6 129.3 130.1 130.9 132.7 134.9 137.2 139.6 142.4 145.4 148.7 152.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 13 14 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 31 30 29 28 26 33 36 31 26 27 32 32 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 10. 11. 9. 7. 5. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 4. 3. -1. -6. -13. -18. -22. -25. -31. -36. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042009 CARLOS 07/14/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042009 CARLOS 07/14/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY