* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962009 07/14/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 31 37 40 40 33 27 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 31 37 40 40 33 27 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 27 25 21 17 DIS SHEAR (KT) 7 3 1 1 2 2 3 4 11 14 20 26 25 SHEAR DIR 258 221 271 141 266 354 344 299 282 279 270 256 262 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.4 27.5 26.1 25.1 24.2 23.4 23.0 22.9 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 152 152 149 140 126 115 106 98 93 92 87 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 -53.1 -53.6 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 6 5 5 3 2 1 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 76 74 76 75 74 71 68 66 64 57 55 51 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 13 12 11 8 7 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 40 44 50 48 54 54 34 31 -2 -3 -22 -16 -41 200 MB DIV 87 85 53 50 59 69 3 11 -11 -6 0 7 13 LAND (KM) 1095 1127 1122 1123 1135 1197 1253 1370 1495 1641 1813 1907 1984 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.7 14.2 14.6 15.6 16.7 17.8 18.9 20.1 21.2 22.2 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 112.8 113.6 114.4 115.4 116.3 118.4 120.7 123.2 126.0 128.8 131.4 133.8 136.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 12 13 14 14 14 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 39 36 40 48 47 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 17. 20. 21. 21. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. 9. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -6. -7. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 12. 15. 15. 8. 2. -7. -12. -17. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962009 INVEST 07/14/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.9 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962009 INVEST 07/14/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY