* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP042009 07/15/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 92 91 89 87 83 78 70 63 58 55 50 46 V (KT) LAND 90 92 91 89 87 83 78 70 63 58 55 50 46 V (KT) LGE mod 90 92 90 87 83 75 71 68 63 59 54 49 45 SHEAR (KT) 10 11 12 12 7 7 9 14 18 15 15 15 15 SHEAR DIR 288 298 302 316 335 328 355 329 332 345 320 323 283 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 146 146 146 150 148 146 145 144 141 143 145 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 62 61 61 63 63 67 62 55 51 54 47 47 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 1 -14 -25 -34 -21 -18 -8 -10 -5 -4 0 5 200 MB DIV -14 -21 -9 -16 -1 -19 -28 -56 -44 -41 -24 0 -7 LAND (KM) 2370 2416 2464 2514 2565 2456 2190 1933 1706 1455 1202 984 809 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.5 10.7 11.1 11.5 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.9 LONG(DEG W) 128.4 129.2 129.9 130.7 131.5 133.6 136.1 138.6 141.0 143.8 146.9 150.1 153.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 8 10 11 12 12 13 15 15 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 30 29 28 27 25 40 36 26 28 31 30 41 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -1. -3. -7. -12. -20. -27. -32. -35. -40. -44. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042009 CARLOS 07/15/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042009 CARLOS 07/15/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY