* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962009 07/15/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 39 38 33 27 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 39 38 33 27 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 32 32 32 32 31 28 25 21 17 DIS SHEAR (KT) 6 4 2 3 0 2 5 7 10 16 19 28 21 SHEAR DIR 253 250 242 265 22 356 355 292 289 291 262 261 284 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.9 26.6 25.2 24.3 23.2 22.9 22.7 22.2 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 151 148 144 130 116 107 96 93 90 84 83 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.5 -51.9 -51.6 -51.2 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -52.6 -52.8 -53.7 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 5 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 76 74 73 70 67 67 64 58 57 54 51 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 14 15 14 13 13 10 9 7 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 46 55 53 60 65 41 40 18 0 -7 -21 -33 -50 200 MB DIV 104 51 48 72 84 30 17 -18 -16 -4 26 3 31 LAND (KM) 1107 1097 1097 1108 1132 1181 1261 1378 1505 1666 1804 1841 1861 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.0 14.4 14.9 15.4 16.5 17.7 18.8 20.1 21.2 22.4 23.8 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 113.5 114.4 115.3 116.3 117.3 119.4 121.8 124.3 127.2 129.8 132.5 134.7 136.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 12 13 14 14 14 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 34 38 46 42 30 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 15. 15. 14. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 3. -3. -10. -18. -24. -28. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962009 INVEST 07/15/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 3.0 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962009 INVEST 07/15/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY