* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP042009 07/15/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 87 84 83 78 70 60 54 50 47 43 39 V (KT) LAND 90 89 87 84 83 78 70 60 54 50 47 43 39 V (KT) LGE mod 90 90 86 82 78 71 66 62 55 50 45 39 34 SHEAR (KT) 11 13 14 10 6 6 12 21 15 24 21 22 15 SHEAR DIR 300 302 314 330 352 329 313 329 337 329 323 310 307 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 146 146 146 150 147 145 145 143 140 143 143 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 62 61 61 63 66 66 58 56 50 51 50 48 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -12 -25 -30 -19 -15 -14 -8 -5 4 0 1 6 200 MB DIV -8 -12 -6 -7 -12 -7 -68 -39 -42 -31 -47 -43 -4 LAND (KM) 2393 2440 2489 2543 2597 2397 2136 1899 1654 1388 1113 899 792 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.3 11.8 11.9 11.9 11.9 12.0 12.0 11.9 LONG(DEG W) 128.8 129.6 130.3 131.2 132.0 134.1 136.5 138.9 141.5 144.5 147.9 151.2 154.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 9 10 11 12 12 14 16 17 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 30 29 28 25 26 39 33 25 28 33 26 44 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -15. -18. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -7. -12. -20. -30. -36. -40. -43. -47. -51. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042009 CARLOS 07/15/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042009 CARLOS 07/15/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY