* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIVE EP052009 07/15/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 35 36 34 29 23 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 35 36 34 29 23 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 33 34 33 30 27 24 21 18 16 DIS SHEAR (KT) 8 4 3 2 3 4 4 8 9 20 24 32 44 SHEAR DIR 277 311 299 255 264 258 265 260 261 267 285 290 286 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.2 27.6 26.7 25.0 24.2 23.7 23.5 23.6 23.5 23.8 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 147 141 132 114 106 101 99 100 99 102 108 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -51.5 -51.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 3 2 1 2 2 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 76 72 72 71 68 66 60 55 49 42 39 32 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 13 12 11 10 8 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 53 51 60 63 52 31 36 19 27 21 34 33 26 200 MB DIV 50 46 79 88 63 1 7 2 10 1 3 -3 -7 LAND (KM) 1093 1064 1047 1048 1055 1121 1306 1490 1709 1956 2018 1706 1393 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.6 15.3 16.2 17.0 18.3 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.4 20.9 20.9 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 114.2 115.1 115.9 117.0 118.1 120.6 123.5 126.5 129.5 132.5 135.5 138.5 141.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 37 43 38 23 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):302/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 9. 6. 3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. -1. -7. -13. -17. -22. -28. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052009 FIVE 07/15/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052009 FIVE 07/15/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY