* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP882009 07/15/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 22 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 22 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 76 72 73 56 51 47 49 49 51 44 51 56 66 SHEAR DIR 263 255 249 251 249 259 260 265 260 253 256 252 257 SST (C) 25.0 24.9 24.7 24.7 24.7 24.7 24.7 24.8 24.8 24.9 25.0 25.1 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 112 112 110 110 110 109 108 108 108 109 110 110 112 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.5 -55.9 -56.1 -56.2 -55.7 -56.0 -55.9 -55.6 -55.5 -55.2 -55.1 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 32 36 39 42 43 41 40 35 34 31 30 28 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -22 -29 -27 -41 -76 -83 -84 -71 -55 -42 -27 0 200 MB DIV 5 31 38 6 20 2 -14 -30 -23 -15 6 3 11 LAND (KM) 723 679 653 638 644 649 644 653 641 606 548 483 424 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.3 21.2 22.2 23.1 24.5 25.5 26.1 26.3 26.2 25.8 25.4 25.0 LONG(DEG W) 147.9 148.4 148.8 149.4 149.9 151.1 152.3 153.1 153.8 154.5 155.0 155.5 155.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 11 11 9 8 6 4 3 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 1. -6. -15. -29. -43. -54. -62. -66. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -13. -14. -15. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -8. -18. -30. -38. -44. -48. -52. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP882009 INVEST 07/15/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 65.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP882009 INVEST 07/15/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY