* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP882009 07/15/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 75 77 66 55 64 48 56 62 60 61 56 63 62 SHEAR DIR 258 251 253 250 249 258 266 260 260 254 254 253 257 SST (C) 25.0 24.9 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.9 25.0 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 112 112 111 111 111 110 109 109 110 111 112 112 114 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.4 -55.9 -55.8 -55.6 -55.5 -55.8 -55.4 -55.6 -54.9 -55.1 -54.6 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 36 38 41 43 42 40 38 33 34 29 30 31 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -25 -26 -35 -51 -82 -88 -88 -65 -56 -32 -20 11 200 MB DIV 33 35 6 22 14 -27 -14 -36 1 -28 1 3 0 LAND (KM) 670 619 590 583 592 587 581 566 526 474 424 383 354 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.4 21.4 22.3 23.2 24.4 25.2 25.6 25.5 25.3 25.1 24.9 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 148.4 149.0 149.5 150.1 150.6 151.8 152.9 153.9 154.7 155.5 156.1 156.6 157.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 11 10 9 7 5 4 4 3 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -2. -9. -20. -35. -51. -65. -73. -78. -84. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -13. -14. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. -3. -11. -24. -39. -50. -57. -63. -68. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP882009 INVEST 07/15/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 67.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP882009 INVEST 07/15/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY