* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052009 07/15/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 43 43 38 31 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 43 43 38 31 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 45 45 44 39 33 28 23 19 16 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 5 4 6 4 4 8 10 12 24 31 40 43 45 SHEAR DIR 258 256 261 282 248 280 258 265 263 266 278 270 270 SST (C) 28.0 27.4 26.6 25.6 24.9 23.8 22.9 23.0 23.1 23.1 23.6 24.0 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 139 131 121 114 103 93 94 95 95 100 104 105 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.0 -51.5 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -52.1 -52.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 2 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 71 70 68 67 66 63 53 47 42 41 33 25 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 15 14 14 13 11 10 8 8 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 73 74 59 36 34 36 17 23 14 23 27 25 -3 200 MB DIV 61 72 43 7 -3 -3 -6 4 13 24 -16 -3 8 LAND (KM) 1024 1039 1052 1077 1122 1285 1468 1699 1913 1962 1663 1377 1123 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.4 17.1 17.8 18.5 19.5 20.4 21.1 21.6 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 116.1 117.2 118.2 119.5 120.8 123.8 127.0 130.1 133.1 136.1 139.0 141.8 144.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 15 15 16 14 14 14 13 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 32 19 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 1. -5. -9. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -10. -13. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. -2. -9. -17. -26. -32. -41. -48. -56. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052009 DOLORES 07/15/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052009 DOLORES 07/15/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY