* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP042009 07/16/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 37 31 28 26 26 26 30 34 37 41 42 49 V (KT) LAND 45 37 31 28 26 26 26 30 34 37 41 42 49 V (KT) LGE mod 45 36 30 26 24 21 20 21 21 23 24 26 29 SHEAR (KT) 15 13 15 18 19 19 18 16 21 18 14 6 4 SHEAR DIR 310 309 309 315 338 8 24 10 22 27 37 28 79 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 149 152 152 152 151 149 147 148 148 146 146 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 59 64 65 65 66 67 64 65 60 60 55 51 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 2 2 3 3 4 3 4 5 4 5 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -13 -12 -16 -18 -28 -26 -15 -23 -15 -17 -5 -4 200 MB DIV -5 -17 -33 -18 -20 -48 -23 2 1 -6 -1 27 22 LAND (KM) 2602 2618 2529 2432 2335 2113 1897 1680 1488 1297 1101 1037 1066 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.1 9.9 9.7 9.5 9.4 9.7 9.6 9.5 LONG(DEG W) 131.5 132.4 133.3 134.3 135.3 137.7 140.2 142.9 145.6 148.6 151.8 154.8 157.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 14 15 15 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 36 38 40 38 34 37 39 40 43 42 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. 19. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE -6. -11. -14. -15. -15. -15. -13. -11. -10. -10. -7. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -17. -19. -19. -19. -15. -11. -8. -4. -3. 4. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042009 CARLOS 07/16/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042009 CARLOS 07/16/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY