* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052009 07/16/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 46 46 44 36 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 47 46 46 44 36 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 49 48 46 39 33 28 23 19 16 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 7 7 5 5 5 6 9 16 27 40 44 57 64 SHEAR DIR 223 241 268 252 272 269 273 274 284 269 268 274 277 SST (C) 27.3 26.4 25.6 24.8 24.2 23.0 22.8 22.9 23.1 23.1 23.7 24.1 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 129 121 113 107 94 92 93 95 95 101 104 105 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.5 -51.9 -51.6 -51.2 -51.9 -51.8 -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 71 69 67 67 68 59 53 41 37 31 26 24 22 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 14 14 14 11 11 9 9 8 7 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 68 58 37 38 42 19 27 20 32 44 28 1 -22 200 MB DIV 73 37 2 5 22 -8 -2 0 2 6 -2 -15 5 LAND (KM) 997 1027 1054 1115 1194 1328 1534 1779 1968 1850 1547 1271 1008 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.6 19.2 20.3 21.0 21.5 21.8 22.1 22.3 22.2 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 116.9 118.1 119.3 120.8 122.2 125.2 128.2 131.2 134.2 137.2 140.2 142.9 145.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 15 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. -2. -9. -16. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. 1. -1. -9. -15. -25. -33. -42. -49. -60. -71. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052009 DOLORES 07/16/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052009 DOLORES 07/16/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY