* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052009 07/16/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 46 43 37 30 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 46 43 37 30 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 46 44 42 36 30 26 23 19 16 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 11 10 7 6 7 9 9 17 33 47 48 48 39 SHEAR DIR 243 263 294 270 244 237 264 291 272 266 254 257 249 SST (C) 26.0 25.1 24.5 23.8 23.1 22.2 22.5 22.5 22.2 22.6 23.3 23.5 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 125 116 110 102 95 85 88 88 85 89 96 97 98 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -51.3 -51.5 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -53.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 1 1 1 0 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 69 65 65 63 58 52 43 35 27 23 20 24 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 14 13 12 11 10 10 8 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 54 37 39 48 37 17 23 17 28 38 16 -1 -23 200 MB DIV 33 -1 6 8 11 2 5 5 7 16 16 13 -7 LAND (KM) 1001 1051 1121 1198 1251 1411 1620 1763 1879 1836 1551 1372 1295 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.4 19.0 19.6 20.2 21.3 22.1 22.8 23.6 24.1 24.4 25.1 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 118.4 119.8 121.2 122.7 124.1 127.0 129.8 132.4 135.0 137.7 140.7 142.9 144.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 14 13 12 13 13 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 1. -6. -13. -20. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. -2. -8. -15. -21. -33. -44. -53. -61. -65. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052009 DOLORES 07/16/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052009 DOLORES 07/16/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY