* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP042009 07/16/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 21 25 26 21 21 24 22 9 6 5 4 6 8 SHEAR DIR 306 313 329 354 6 18 26 34 9 87 196 270 197 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.2 27.9 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 152 153 152 148 147 146 148 146 144 142 142 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 65 63 69 68 66 62 63 58 56 55 57 56 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -17 -12 -12 -14 -22 -19 -16 -15 -13 -17 -9 5 200 MB DIV -9 -6 -3 -17 -37 -37 -42 -10 -3 23 55 42 44 LAND (KM) 2453 2359 2265 2128 1993 1750 1617 1393 1129 985 912 956 1042 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.3 LONG(DEG W) 134.3 135.3 136.2 137.6 139.0 141.8 143.3 146.1 150.0 153.0 156.0 158.9 161.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 11 14 14 11 10 17 17 15 15 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 39 40 40 39 37 35 36 37 45 40 41 49 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 20. 26. 29. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -9. -9. -9. -7. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -9. -4. 3. 9. 12. 13. 15. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042009 CARLOS 07/16/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042009 CARLOS 07/16/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY