* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP042009 07/16/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 21 22 24 29 36 44 48 49 46 48 V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 21 22 24 29 36 44 48 49 46 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 21 20 19 19 20 22 25 30 35 37 DIS SHEAR (KT) 25 25 22 21 21 19 17 9 4 3 10 14 N/A SHEAR DIR 317 334 3 12 29 33 43 69 68 159 182 234 N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 152 151 148 146 145 146 145 142 139 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.6 -52.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 67 67 62 63 61 62 59 52 49 40 38 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 7 3 -3 -8 -13 -14 -14 -14 -24 -21 7 N/A 200 MB DIV 11 12 -6 -21 -31 -36 -8 12 4 52 26 27 N/A LAND (KM) 2341 2226 2112 2000 1890 1704 1485 1333 1148 984 859 758 N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.8 10.1 10.6 11.3 12.1 N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.7 136.9 138.1 139.3 140.5 142.7 145.4 147.5 150.0 152.4 154.1 156.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 12 12 11 12 11 10 11 N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 40 39 36 32 39 38 43 44 41 40 35 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 20. 26. 29. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 10. 9. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 4. 11. 19. 23. 24. 21. 23. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042009 CARLOS 07/16/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042009 CARLOS 07/16/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY