* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052009 07/16/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 25 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 12 8 6 6 8 6 16 27 35 37 37 43 47 SHEAR DIR 264 273 264 258 272 263 264 264 231 221 222 214 206 SST (C) 24.4 23.8 23.1 22.5 22.0 22.0 21.8 21.3 21.0 20.4 19.9 19.1 17.9 POT. INT. (KT) 108 102 94 88 83 82 80 75 72 66 61 61 61 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.3 -51.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -53.0 -53.8 -54.3 -54.6 -54.9 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 62 57 53 54 43 42 39 36 34 37 33 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 11 9 9 9 8 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 45 32 5 8 2 -15 -21 -28 -44 -42 -52 -56 200 MB DIV 13 24 20 -4 -21 3 7 25 29 17 27 24 17 LAND (KM) 1181 1228 1266 1313 1370 1484 1526 1503 1433 1287 1148 979 783 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.6 20.2 20.8 21.4 22.8 24.2 26.0 28.3 30.8 33.3 35.5 36.9 LONG(DEG W) 121.9 123.1 124.3 125.5 126.6 128.7 130.6 132.4 133.5 134.1 134.2 133.7 132.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 12 11 12 12 13 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 4. -1. -8. -15. -22. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -5. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 5. 8. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -12. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -15. -15. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -17. -24. -31. -39. -47. -58. -69. -76. -81. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052009 DOLORES 07/16/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052009 DOLORES 07/16/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY