* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972009 07/17/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 28 34 40 46 51 55 59 63 66 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 28 34 40 46 51 55 59 63 66 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 24 27 30 34 38 41 45 49 52 SHEAR (KT) 4 8 9 11 18 14 16 14 15 12 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 327 343 355 357 2 9 357 322 317 302 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.8 27.4 27.5 27.6 28.0 28.3 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 117 117 117 119 120 124 131 132 134 139 144 151 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 119 119 121 121 125 133 134 135 141 146 151 148 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -53.9 -54.4 -54.1 -54.5 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 63 63 61 62 61 58 62 66 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 14 20 25 28 40 37 28 26 19 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 -15 -39 -35 -38 -18 -5 22 51 39 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1756 1722 1692 1544 1407 1170 953 838 757 568 555 158 166 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.8 13.5 14.7 16.3 18.2 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 34.7 36.5 38.3 40.1 41.8 45.1 48.3 51.4 54.6 57.6 60.9 64.2 67.2 STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 18 17 17 16 16 15 16 17 18 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 2 4 5 14 32 38 48 48 36 61 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 22. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 20. 26. 31. 35. 39. 43. 46. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972009 INVEST 07/17/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)