* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972009 07/17/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 28 34 39 45 49 52 56 60 63 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 28 34 39 45 49 52 56 60 63 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 24 26 29 32 35 38 40 42 45 SHEAR (KT) 6 8 11 19 21 16 14 17 16 17 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 345 358 360 4 19 353 340 311 317 303 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.9 27.4 27.4 27.7 28.1 28.4 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 117 118 119 120 121 125 130 131 135 141 145 151 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 120 121 121 121 125 131 131 136 142 145 149 142 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.2 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 63 63 61 60 62 59 60 64 65 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 17 22 27 32 40 30 20 14 -5 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 -38 -32 -34 -32 -9 -4 45 50 39 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1713 1690 1570 1440 1322 1119 951 867 771 645 496 178 277 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 13.2 14.2 15.7 17.4 19.2 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 36.0 37.8 39.6 41.3 42.9 46.0 48.9 51.8 54.8 57.8 61.1 64.3 67.1 STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 17 16 16 15 14 15 16 17 17 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 1 2 4 5 7 19 33 39 48 50 55 59 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 22. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 19. 25. 29. 32. 36. 40. 43. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972009 INVEST 07/17/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -28.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972009 INVEST 07/17/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY