* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972009 07/18/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 25 30 36 42 48 52 56 59 61 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 25 30 36 42 48 52 56 59 61 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 32 36 41 45 48 49 SHEAR (KT) 7 10 13 17 16 19 10 16 10 17 21 27 26 SHEAR DIR 353 360 12 23 19 28 3 343 309 333 341 341 340 SST (C) 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.6 28.9 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 120 121 122 123 124 129 132 132 136 141 148 152 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 124 124 123 124 129 132 132 137 142 149 150 140 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.7 -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 65 64 59 60 62 58 59 64 65 62 59 59 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 13 13 22 35 30 12 10 -3 -21 -41 -55 -80 200 MB DIV -28 -29 -28 -31 -36 -23 -12 15 47 24 1 1 -5 LAND (KM) 1615 1507 1357 1251 1160 974 856 828 669 575 373 99 223 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.2 12.5 13.1 14.2 15.6 17.4 19.2 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 38.0 39.8 41.6 43.1 44.6 47.5 50.3 53.1 55.9 59.0 62.3 65.4 67.9 STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 16 15 15 14 14 14 16 17 18 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 5 8 9 9 14 30 37 45 57 56 58 64 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 22. 27. 30. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 16. 22. 28. 32. 36. 39. 41. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972009 INVEST 07/18/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -30.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972009 INVEST 07/18/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY