* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972009 07/19/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 29 32 35 38 37 38 42 49 53 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 29 32 35 38 37 34 42 48 52 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 23 23 21 23 24 26 SHEAR (KT) 12 12 19 23 23 21 30 25 34 26 33 22 23 SHEAR DIR 322 300 272 290 304 297 324 326 336 315 323 334 332 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.8 29.0 28.7 29.1 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 133 133 136 140 145 152 155 150 156 157 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 133 134 135 137 143 149 157 161 151 154 152 149 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -54.3 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -53.7 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 55 51 53 55 58 62 61 60 59 56 58 58 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 3 3 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 39 29 25 21 15 15 14 3 0 -19 -38 -66 200 MB DIV 7 -1 6 23 15 -1 8 -14 -6 -12 -15 -14 -8 LAND (KM) 851 808 795 734 590 405 466 224 109 0 69 200 111 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.1 13.3 14.0 14.9 15.9 17.1 18.4 19.3 20.2 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 50.2 51.7 53.1 54.7 56.2 59.2 62.7 66.5 70.5 74.4 78.1 81.2 84.1 STM SPEED (KT) 17 14 15 15 15 16 18 20 20 19 17 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 38 40 47 48 54 65 66 75 75 71 96 99 97 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -1. -5. -10. -14. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 17. 18. 22. 29. 33. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972009 INVEST 07/19/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972009 INVEST 07/19/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY