* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972009 07/19/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 38 42 47 50 52 56 60 61 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 38 42 47 50 49 53 57 58 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 29 30 31 32 34 37 38 45 49 51 SHEAR (KT) 11 20 23 21 17 21 22 18 18 26 23 28 29 SHEAR DIR 297 276 289 313 317 315 341 324 315 297 305 296 290 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.6 29.0 28.8 28.9 29.5 29.5 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 134 136 139 143 148 155 152 152 161 161 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 136 136 138 140 145 152 159 154 150 155 150 146 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -54.8 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 57 54 59 61 63 63 63 61 59 59 58 54 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 3 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 26 20 22 27 12 29 7 15 -8 -46 -68 -82 200 MB DIV 11 16 26 7 14 12 20 5 10 7 0 -3 24 LAND (KM) 740 741 644 513 412 402 311 179 32 60 57 77 22 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.5 12.7 13.1 13.5 14.4 15.4 16.5 17.9 19.3 20.5 21.3 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 52.5 54.0 55.4 56.9 58.4 61.4 64.8 68.5 72.3 75.8 78.7 81.0 83.2 STM SPEED (KT) 18 14 14 15 15 16 18 19 19 16 13 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 47 49 48 55 56 64 48 73 79 81 108 107 81 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 756 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 22. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 17. 22. 25. 27. 31. 35. 36. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972009 INVEST 07/19/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972009 INVEST 07/19/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY