* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972009 07/20/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 31 33 36 38 40 40 43 46 48 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 31 33 36 38 40 40 43 46 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 27 27 26 26 26 27 31 32 32 32 SHEAR (KT) 22 29 28 24 25 26 20 26 21 38 28 37 33 SHEAR DIR 278 291 305 306 297 320 314 324 299 320 314 311 291 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.8 29.0 28.7 29.0 29.4 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 136 137 140 145 151 155 150 154 160 157 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 135 137 138 141 148 155 158 150 151 152 148 143 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -53.9 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 10 10 11 11 12 11 13 700-500 MB RH 54 58 62 62 61 63 64 61 59 59 57 57 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 26 24 26 11 16 22 -2 7 -19 -34 -57 -45 200 MB DIV 14 13 1 13 14 28 4 7 -6 9 0 -1 12 LAND (KM) 753 663 532 434 386 455 228 142 0 55 153 150 33 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.8 15.9 17.0 18.2 19.3 20.2 20.8 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 53.8 55.3 56.7 58.2 59.6 62.8 66.3 70.0 73.6 77.0 79.7 82.2 84.3 STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 15 15 15 17 18 18 18 15 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 49 48 54 56 68 67 71 81 52 82 104 99 94 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 22. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -10. -12. -17. -19. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 19. 21. 23. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972009 INVEST 07/20/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972009 INVEST 07/20/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY