* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972009 07/20/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 30 35 38 40 41 44 47 50 51 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 30 35 38 40 40 43 46 50 50 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 23 23 24 24 25 25 26 27 SHEAR (KT) 31 25 31 29 26 22 27 27 32 24 35 29 35 SHEAR DIR 299 287 279 304 313 307 326 306 319 318 321 297 303 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 29.3 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 146 146 146 147 148 148 158 162 160 156 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 147 149 150 150 150 150 146 154 153 148 142 134 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 700-500 MB RH 64 63 63 62 64 63 61 58 60 57 51 48 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 33 15 9 24 30 8 9 -16 -31 -64 -60 -81 200 MB DIV 4 22 10 9 29 10 5 2 10 -10 -6 -9 -26 LAND (KM) 449 361 346 405 404 223 49 30 34 151 143 56 73 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.4 14.8 16.0 17.2 18.5 19.5 20.4 20.9 21.3 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 57.6 59.2 60.7 62.4 64.1 67.5 71.2 74.7 77.8 80.3 82.3 84.1 85.5 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 17 17 18 18 17 14 11 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 56 60 75 63 61 82 78 72 94 104 100 95 77 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 22. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -6. -11. -15. -19. -21. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 10. 13. 15. 16. 19. 22. 25. 26. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972009 INVEST 07/20/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972009 INVEST 07/20/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY