* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972009 07/20/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 33 36 39 41 43 48 53 57 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 33 36 38 39 41 32 33 37 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 24 25 26 25 26 32 SHEAR (KT) 29 29 29 26 23 29 29 21 22 28 14 25 14 SHEAR DIR 298 287 303 318 323 324 329 309 316 307 318 287 285 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.8 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 146 145 146 148 146 150 163 165 164 160 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 149 149 148 149 149 146 146 154 150 146 140 140 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 12 12 13 13 700-500 MB RH 64 65 64 65 66 65 59 62 60 52 50 46 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 20 15 26 40 21 15 7 -16 -46 -68 -82 -100 200 MB DIV 22 21 19 34 17 35 17 17 15 -9 4 8 0 LAND (KM) 326 328 377 407 311 188 23 71 26 1 -55 0 115 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.7 15.2 16.5 17.9 19.2 20.6 21.7 22.5 23.2 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 59.6 61.2 62.7 64.4 66.0 69.3 72.7 75.8 78.3 79.9 81.0 81.8 82.3 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 16 17 17 17 17 15 11 8 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 61 71 61 57 63 73 79 82 77 112 113 40 93 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 22. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -10. -13. -16. -17. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 23. 28. 32. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972009 INVEST 07/20/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 62.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972009 INVEST 07/20/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY