* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972009 07/21/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 31 33 37 42 47 49 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 26 26 27 30 35 37 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 22 21 21 24 25 26 35 38 SHEAR (KT) 30 30 31 29 30 35 23 23 14 18 16 20 23 SHEAR DIR 288 296 312 316 311 330 324 331 309 307 276 298 277 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 29.2 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 145 146 148 148 148 156 163 164 164 164 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 149 148 149 150 148 143 147 149 146 145 144 143 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 10 10 11 10 11 12 12 12 13 700-500 MB RH 64 65 65 65 65 62 62 60 52 46 44 42 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 19 24 30 33 9 4 -22 -37 -59 -65 -107 -122 200 MB DIV -1 17 28 13 18 6 -5 22 -2 -11 10 -1 1 LAND (KM) 359 416 363 263 220 1 69 -32 -10 -30 0 69 56 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.6 16.2 17.7 19.2 20.4 21.5 22.2 23.0 23.8 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 61.5 63.2 64.8 66.5 68.1 71.5 74.4 76.8 78.5 79.6 80.6 81.3 81.7 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 17 17 17 14 12 8 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 73 67 52 71 77 80 76 74 3 113 0 104 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 22. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -12. -14. -16. -15. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 17. 22. 24. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972009 INVEST 07/21/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972009 INVEST 07/21/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY