* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972009 07/21/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 34 36 42 46 50 55 60 62 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 25 29 28 31 38 41 45 51 56 58 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 22 25 22 27 28 30 35 40 46 51 SHEAR (KT) 38 29 29 27 32 21 18 6 5 12 10 16 23 SHEAR DIR 311 302 310 316 319 317 330 261 258 209 206 205 195 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.9 29.4 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.3 28.6 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 148 148 146 151 158 165 165 164 156 145 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 149 148 146 143 144 146 147 144 142 136 126 118 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 10 11 10 12 12 13 13 13 12 700-500 MB RH 69 68 65 63 61 61 59 51 46 43 41 40 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 35 39 23 3 4 -42 -58 -109 -107 -123 -125 -122 200 MB DIV 35 58 46 42 27 11 12 5 -19 -3 -9 0 15 LAND (KM) 222 171 111 -22 39 -24 9 107 175 149 156 228 352 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.6 17.3 18.0 18.7 20.4 21.8 23.2 24.1 25.1 26.2 27.9 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 66.7 68.3 69.9 71.5 73.0 75.6 77.4 78.4 78.9 78.9 78.6 78.0 77.2 STM SPEED (KT) 20 17 17 16 15 13 10 7 5 6 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 78 76 83 79 27 82 8 81 78 72 31 26 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 23 CX,CY: -21/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 787 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 22. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 11. 17. 21. 25. 30. 35. 37. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972009 INVEST 07/21/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972009 INVEST 07/21/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY