* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972009 07/21/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 45 50 53 56 60 63 64 V (KT) LAND 25 27 26 26 31 36 42 48 51 53 57 60 62 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 23 24 27 27 29 33 38 43 48 51 53 SHEAR (KT) 30 31 31 31 20 14 1 10 16 20 23 22 21 SHEAR DIR 304 311 318 325 330 300 108 216 208 217 217 219 231 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.6 29.7 29.2 28.7 28.1 27.8 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 146 146 149 154 161 162 154 146 137 131 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 147 144 143 143 142 145 142 133 126 117 110 105 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 12 11 700-500 MB RH 71 67 68 66 68 62 58 47 50 45 47 45 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 27 15 -5 -3 -42 -57 -115 -101 -116 -99 -97 -81 200 MB DIV 47 39 28 28 21 16 10 -14 6 -7 19 -1 14 LAND (KM) 123 59 -30 -9 15 92 201 285 304 407 563 684 671 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.8 18.5 19.4 20.3 22.0 23.7 25.0 26.3 27.4 28.4 29.0 29.4 LONG(DEG W) 68.2 69.8 71.3 72.8 74.2 76.2 77.2 77.5 77.1 76.0 74.6 73.5 73.3 STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 16 16 14 11 8 7 7 8 7 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 67 70 77 35 41 73 72 89 37 42 25 21 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 22 CX,CY: -19/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 22. 26. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 20. 25. 29. 31. 35. 38. 39. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972009 INVEST 07/21/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972009 INVEST 07/21/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY