* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982009 07/23/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 35 39 44 50 52 49 42 33 27 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 29 35 39 44 50 35 30 28 25 26 28 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 33 29 33 30 33 33 SHEAR (KT) 28 27 31 29 37 38 37 29 37 44 47 44 40 SHEAR DIR 200 190 208 204 203 228 231 267 293 304 305 312 312 SST (C) 25.7 24.6 23.4 21.7 19.4 14.1 13.9 14.8 14.0 12.8 12.0 12.3 15.8 POT. INT. (KT) 113 104 96 87 79 69 68 68 67 67 67 69 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 90 85 78 73 66 65 64 63 64 65 67 70 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.3 -53.9 -54.6 -54.6 -53.9 -54.6 -56.2 -56.8 -56.5 -56.5 -57.3 -58.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 58 61 61 62 62 57 53 51 48 46 50 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 13 13 15 16 16 13 8 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 58 65 46 54 44 14 -8 -13 -56 -76 -74 -53 200 MB DIV 73 88 93 64 56 93 26 26 -15 -23 -40 -50 -34 LAND (KM) 145 203 196 164 84 65 -111 -2 -16 79 -89 125 594 LAT (DEG N) 35.5 36.8 38.1 39.5 40.8 43.6 46.1 48.2 49.4 49.5 48.6 47.1 44.7 LONG(DEG W) 74.3 73.6 72.8 71.8 70.8 68.4 66.7 65.1 63.0 59.8 56.0 51.3 46.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 16 16 15 13 10 9 12 15 20 22 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 15 CX,CY: 1/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 806 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 6. 9. 12. 15. 14. 8. 3. -2. -5. -9. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -26. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 2. -2. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 14. 19. 25. 27. 24. 17. 8. 2. -5. -11. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982009 INVEST 07/23/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982009 INVEST 07/23/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY