* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP892009 07/24/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 62 60 61 53 53 59 56 49 49 51 49 47 47 SHEAR DIR 263 264 267 272 270 269 275 271 273 279 288 286 285 SST (C) 24.7 24.8 24.9 25.0 25.1 25.4 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.5 26.8 27.0 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 108 109 110 111 112 116 120 123 125 128 131 133 135 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 29 29 29 30 32 31 34 36 34 34 40 39 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -79 -65 -48 -51 -50 -37 -21 -9 -1 -4 -3 4 -1 200 MB DIV -20 -8 -26 5 4 -7 -21 -25 -22 -26 -42 -35 -20 LAND (KM) 670 618 565 508 451 319 180 91 139 295 446 521 623 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.5 19.4 19.4 19.3 19.0 18.7 18.3 18.1 17.9 17.7 17.6 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 148.4 148.9 149.4 150.0 150.5 151.8 153.3 155.0 156.7 158.4 160.1 161.7 163.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 7 12 13 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -2. -10. -20. -32. -44. -52. -55. -57. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -9. -13. -15. -16. -16. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -6. -18. -32. -46. -59. -67. -70. -72. -71. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP892009 INVEST 07/24/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 58.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 48.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP892009 INVEST 07/24/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY