* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TEST AL892009 07/27/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 27 29 30 31 32 34 37 40 44 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 27 29 30 31 32 34 31 33 36 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 26 25 23 21 19 19 26 27 SHEAR (KT) 17 14 21 27 26 31 34 37 29 27 21 22 13 SHEAR DIR 345 323 309 306 302 298 286 301 308 314 302 283 325 SST (C) 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.9 28.4 28.7 28.8 29.0 28.7 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 134 140 144 145 147 154 146 150 151 154 149 162 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 149 154 156 156 164 152 154 151 153 145 157 156 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 11 12 11 12 12 12 11 12 12 13 700-500 MB RH 42 43 45 42 41 40 40 45 48 50 51 52 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 20 8 0 10 14 10 4 -16 -22 -30 -38 -32 200 MB DIV -37 -33 -15 -2 1 14 -11 15 27 8 6 3 -21 LAND (KM) 678 477 358 394 395 287 155 46 358 256 -91 63 152 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.3 14.6 15.6 16.6 17.5 18.2 18.7 19.1 19.5 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 55.4 57.8 60.1 62.5 64.8 69.4 73.8 78.0 81.7 85.1 88.4 91.4 94.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 23 23 23 23 22 21 19 17 16 15 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 47 50 69 57 42 62 78 82 82 86 60 8 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 11. 18. 22. 27. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -5. -11. -16. -20. -20. -20. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 12. 15. 19. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL892009 TEST 07/27/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL892009 TEST 07/27/09 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING