* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972009 07/30/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 44 49 53 51 47 42 38 35 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 44 49 53 51 47 42 38 35 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 30 32 33 34 35 33 31 29 SHEAR (KT) 3 2 2 2 3 2 1 4 12 14 19 27 28 SHEAR DIR 155 292 3 351 187 239 149 343 231 233 234 236 250 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.5 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.2 26.8 26.6 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 147 146 145 141 136 137 138 136 132 130 133 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -50.9 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 69 68 68 69 66 66 66 59 60 60 55 54 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -4 -3 0 -3 0 -3 0 2 2 -5 1 8 200 MB DIV 83 72 60 56 57 21 34 25 46 21 29 19 22 LAND (KM) 2254 2115 1977 1836 1697 1413 1140 887 649 463 325 323 442 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.7 11.8 12.3 12.8 13.5 14.4 15.1 16.0 16.9 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 135.6 137.0 138.3 139.7 141.1 143.9 146.7 149.3 151.7 153.8 156.0 157.9 160.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 14 14 14 13 13 12 11 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 32 34 28 28 27 26 26 28 25 14 10 7 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 18. 23. 26. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. 10. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 19. 24. 28. 26. 22. 17. 13. 10. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972009 INVEST 07/30/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 81% is 7.0 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 48% is 6.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 5.6 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972009 INVEST 07/30/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY