* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972009 07/30/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 43 46 46 46 41 35 31 26 21 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 41 43 46 46 46 41 35 31 26 21 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 37 38 39 38 36 34 31 29 27 25 SHEAR (KT) 6 3 4 2 5 4 13 16 21 19 26 33 35 SHEAR DIR 139 163 185 207 203 238 256 229 226 236 241 244 256 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.0 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 143 141 139 136 137 136 132 130 132 134 133 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.0 -51.2 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 68 68 67 66 65 62 60 54 53 45 48 41 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 5 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -3 -5 -8 -12 -11 -12 0 2 -9 -13 -32 -31 200 MB DIV 70 52 41 34 12 13 15 35 16 20 13 24 0 LAND (KM) 1920 1765 1611 1454 1299 1000 717 480 292 233 335 294 340 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.4 12.7 13.4 14.3 15.3 16.3 17.4 18.4 19.5 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 138.9 140.4 141.9 143.4 144.9 147.9 150.8 153.1 155.2 157.2 159.1 160.9 162.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 15 13 12 11 11 10 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 27 28 26 24 27 11 14 19 9 7 14 12 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 19. 22. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -13. -15. -15. -15. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 13. 16. 16. 16. 11. 5. 1. -4. -9. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972009 INVEST 07/30/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 62% is 5.4 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 35% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 5.5 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972009 INVEST 07/30/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY