* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LANA EP062009 07/31/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 59 60 62 62 58 50 44 40 35 29 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 59 60 62 62 58 50 44 40 35 29 V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 54 57 58 58 58 56 52 48 44 41 38 SHEAR (KT) 9 3 1 4 5 8 12 21 22 24 24 23 36 SHEAR DIR 201 220 139 205 210 206 218 222 219 221 216 227 244 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.5 27.6 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 137 136 137 140 141 137 136 137 138 141 142 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.1 -51.7 -51.9 -51.4 -52.0 -51.8 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 62 64 61 61 64 60 66 66 61 58 57 58 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 12 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 6 11 8 1 -2 -6 -3 3 -9 -17 -17 -26 -15 200 MB DIV 51 46 20 21 20 26 25 33 21 25 39 17 30 LAND (KM) 1539 1390 1244 1107 977 753 594 546 647 829 960 1108 1274 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.6 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.7 14.8 15.1 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 142.3 143.8 145.3 146.8 148.3 151.2 153.9 156.7 159.5 162.2 164.9 167.4 169.7 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 14 13 14 14 13 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 26 22 13 37 39 33 16 38 34 59 75 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 15. 17. 17. 13. 5. -1. -5. -10. -16. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062009 LANA 07/31/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.6 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 5.5 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062009 LANA 07/31/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY