* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TEST AL822009 07/31/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 31 34 38 40 43 48 51 55 59 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 31 34 38 29 36 40 33 29 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 27 25 24 25 30 34 31 28 27 SHEAR (KT) 32 31 36 36 33 25 11 7 6 11 14 12 9 SHEAR DIR 271 262 263 266 267 260 307 234 93 110 87 101 99 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.4 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 148 149 151 156 161 152 155 154 155 158 160 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 149 151 152 156 160 148 150 148 147 147 148 149 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.0 -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 14 14 13 12 13 10 12 9 13 11 16 12 700-500 MB RH 54 54 53 48 48 54 55 54 57 56 58 56 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 32 26 25 13 13 -3 -34 -49 -30 -24 -17 -13 200 MB DIV 31 54 27 26 37 23 2 -9 -15 0 -14 -5 -22 LAND (KM) 213 154 106 161 306 250 7 -30 117 70 -101 -267 -268 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.2 17.5 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.3 20.5 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 74.1 75.9 77.6 79.4 81.1 84.4 87.5 90.5 93.3 95.8 97.9 99.9 101.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 17 17 17 16 15 14 14 13 11 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 103 62 74 92 97 106 70 31 31 46 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 355 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 10. 13. 18. 21. 25. 29. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL822009 TEST 07/31/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 85.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL822009 TEST 07/31/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY