* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LANA EP062009 07/31/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 46 46 45 40 36 32 29 24 21 17 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 46 46 45 40 36 32 29 24 21 17 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 45 45 44 43 40 37 34 31 29 27 26 SHEAR (KT) 2 5 7 13 11 21 22 26 28 23 34 30 33 SHEAR DIR 147 206 214 211 210 215 209 223 235 222 245 243 240 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.2 26.9 26.9 27.2 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 134 137 138 137 134 134 137 141 142 143 143 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 60 59 61 60 57 58 55 55 54 51 48 49 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -7 -5 -1 3 0 1 -2 -12 -8 -17 -24 -28 200 MB DIV 25 19 23 40 18 20 8 32 20 32 -31 -1 16 LAND (KM) 1200 1063 930 801 683 472 406 529 679 801 977 1225 1493 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.7 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.3 17.5 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 145.5 146.9 148.3 149.8 151.2 154.1 156.7 159.5 162.3 165.1 167.7 170.5 173.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 14 13 13 14 14 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 23 18 9 18 16 21 11 13 18 32 30 59 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -5. -9. -13. -15. -21. -24. -28. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062009 LANA 07/31/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062009 LANA 07/31/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY