* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LANA EP062009 08/01/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 43 43 41 39 33 27 21 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 43 43 41 39 33 27 21 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 42 40 38 37 35 33 30 27 25 23 21 20 SHEAR (KT) 11 8 8 13 15 18 28 30 33 33 35 37 44 SHEAR DIR 230 219 198 196 181 201 212 222 215 226 229 245 239 SST (C) 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.8 27.0 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 137 137 135 133 135 139 142 144 144 144 146 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 60 59 60 60 58 62 58 55 52 51 51 50 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 11 10 9 8 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 6 11 8 14 0 -15 -25 -35 -39 -32 -32 -35 200 MB DIV 26 25 22 47 54 30 42 13 -10 7 6 -1 25 LAND (KM) 807 685 568 463 391 437 623 720 870 1086 1365 1618 1846 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.6 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.3 17.4 17.7 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 149.5 151.0 152.4 153.8 155.2 158.0 160.8 163.5 166.2 168.9 171.9 174.6 177.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 13 14 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 21 14 13 7 17 49 43 64 61 64 78 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -13. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -12. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -12. -18. -24. -30. -31. -32. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062009 LANA 08/01/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062009 LANA 08/01/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY