* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LANA EP062009 08/01/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 43 42 39 33 30 23 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 43 42 39 33 30 23 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 42 40 38 35 32 30 28 27 25 DIS SHEAR (KT) 11 16 17 18 18 25 29 24 26 37 32 40 N/A SHEAR DIR 221 210 204 212 210 207 221 219 228 229 251 237 N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 138 135 134 136 139 142 144 143 144 146 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.9 -53.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 10 10 N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 63 63 62 62 57 55 56 51 49 48 47 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 8 6 7 4 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -2 0 -2 -3 -16 -33 -36 -57 -52 -38 -42 N/A 200 MB DIV 11 41 38 40 23 51 8 12 14 10 -6 45 N/A LAND (KM) 593 507 456 453 501 666 769 931 1157 1393 1640 1903 N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.6 16.1 16.5 16.7 17.0 17.4 17.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 152.6 154.0 155.4 156.9 158.3 161.0 163.7 166.5 169.3 172.0 174.7 177.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 14 13 13 13 12 N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 29 21 12 10 17 25 63 69 71 67 76 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -7. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -12. -15. -22. -26. -30. -32. -32. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062009 LANA 08/01/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062009 LANA 08/01/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY